Predictions: What will happen in the AFL this year?

Late last year, I took the time out to write a few thoughts on who might be taking home silverware in 2009. It was all fun and games until I realized both the men's and women's titles at the Australian Open were won by the two people predicted to win it, Rafael Nadal and Serena Williams.

From there, the half-arsed tip that no matter who won the A-League grand final, Adelaide United would lose, turned out to be on the money. Then, the South Dragons won the NBL championship.

It seems all too likely that from here, my prediction abilities will head south. So whilst I'm on a roll I thought I'd churn out another little piece for the AFL season before it's too late.

Here's five things you can expect to see in 2009:

#1. Geelong will be at their best (and win the premiership)

It wasn't that long ago they got themselves a premiership, Brownlow, Rising Star, Norm Smith, minor premiership, VFL premiership and too many All-Australians to count all in the space of one year.

Then last season, they came out with a 21-win regular season. They were considered near-unstoppable. (Emphasis on the near.)

So it's pretty unfathomable to suggest that now we're about to see their best, right?

Wrong.

In 2009, there's more than enough players out to redeem themselves after the shock grand final loss last year. The motivation will drive them to a point we most likely will never see them at again.

Hawthorn, on the other hand, will have a season similar to last year's, but we won't see their best just yet.

#2. Wooden spooners will be Melbourne, not Freo

The Melbourne Football Club have made the noble sacrifice of not recruiting young players who are going to immediately walk up to their best 22.

Their number one pick at last year's draft went to Jack Watts, a kid who still has high school to complete and won't likely get any game time in the first half of the season.

Of course there's nothing wrong with holding out on young guys, it's just that it makes the short-term picture look especially bleak.

Fremantle, on the other hand, fresh off the back of introducing future stars like Rhys Palmer and Garrick Ibbotson last year, are bringing in a host of young guns.

Expect the injection of Nick Suban, Stephen Hill, Hayden Ballantyne and even the rookie-elevated Greg Broughton to keep them off the bottom this year.

#3. Port Adelaide, Richmond and Carlton will move into the eight

It's looking like an exciting year for Port. Forward pair Robbie Gray and Justin Westhoff will lift their games up a significant notch, as will fellow third-year player Travis Boak in the midfield.

The experience they have on top of that youth should not be overlooked. They may just knock on the door of the top four if things fall their way.

Ben Cousins or no Ben Cousins, Richmond were destined to improve in 2009. It's actually one of the main reasons why Ben Cousins is such a great fit at the Tigers.

Something drastic would have to happen for them not to play September footy this year.

Ditto for Carlton. They've built a quality list that's ready to step up.

#4. St Kilda's hopes of a premiership will be dashed again

The Saints will not make the four. They were – incredibly – lucky to make it last year. One of the craziest round 22 shake-ups in recent history gave them that spot, and fans should not read a heck of a lot into it.

In 2009, their luck will finally run out, if for no reason other than they had their chance and they blew it.

The sacking of Grant Thomas could not have come at a more inconvenient time.

Of course they've now had ample time to adapt to Ross Lyon. But their "premiership window", it must be said, disappeared some time ago.

#5. The ladder will look a little something like this...

Top 8: Geelong, Hawthorn, Collingwood, Western Bulldogs, Port Adelaide, Carlton, Richmond, St Kilda.

Bottom 8: Adelaide, North Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane Lions, Essendon, West Coast, Fremantle, Melbourne.

Photo credit, in order of appearance, to Liam, Michael Spencer, Ryan Schembri, Berk McGowan and Will.

The finals format of the future?

The NBA's Development League, known as the D-League to us younger types, is used as a stepping stone for players, coaches, officials and executives to get to the NBA.

It is also used as a breeding ground for ideas.

One of these ideas, set to be put on trial later this season, could revolutionize the way playoff teams are seeded. Not just in the D-League, not just in the NBA. Many leagues in many sports could use a bit of innovation like this for their post-season showpieces.

The D-League announced this month that it will implement a new seeding system – one where the top seeds get to choose which bottom seed they want to play.

Sounds interesting, right?

In the case of the D-League, there are eight teams. This means that the first-placed side, instead of automatically being drawn against the eight-placed side, will get to choose any side that finished between fifth and eighth.

Then, the second-placed side chooses from the three remaining sides, then the third-placed gets a go and the fourth-placed gets the leftover.

The move makes sense. After all, isn't the whole point of seeding to give the higher finishing teams an advantage?

Why not give them the best possible advantage?

Just because a team finishes lower than another, that does not mean they are necessarily better or easier to beat. Letting them pick and choose ensures they do actually hold the upper hand, not only over the team they are playing, but their fellow seeded teams as well.

Another benefit is the added bit of show-biz to the playoff process.

Rivalries can grow off the back of teams being "called out" by other teams – or by being sent to by a higher seed to an opponent with a strong record against that team.

It gives the whole finals series a strong reality TV feel.

Finally, there is also a renewed emphasis on the regular season.

Under the D-League model, every seeded position genuinely counts for something, which keeps interest rolling as the season goes by. Of course there's no guarantees for the lower seeds, but a lot of these sides are staving off falling below the eight, so interest keeps going there, too.

The current system in the NBA (where first plays eighth) seems on the face of it a fair system. But given how the D-League shifts the power completely into the hands of the higher seeds, the new kid on the block might just upstage the older brother on this issue.

Who knows? Maybe this concept will even filter to Australian shores before too long?

The AFL system has to change once new teams are brought in, and the current set-up is complicated enough already.

(And anyway, I know for a fact Geelong would not have wanted to play Collingwood up front in the finals last year.)

The NRL endures complaints about its first-versus-eighth system every year. Perhaps it may be time to shake things up.

Even if Nathan Jawai is recalled to the Toronto Raptors some time soon, here's one blogger who'll still be keeping an eye on the D-League, if only for their playoff format.

Photo credit to Nick Belardes.

Unlikely heroes give Dragons a championship

Welcome to the new-look Best Off Ground, look-wise and writing-wise. Of course, there's the new look (but when isn't there a new look, right?) On top of that, if all goes to plan, BOG will become a more lighthearted, thought-provoking read from now on... stay tuned!

Had I not been too lazy/preoccupied and actually bothered to write a preview piece going into the NBL grand final series, the sentence I would've finished with would've read: "My heart says Dragons, but my head says we'll have to wait until game five to find out."

Sure, it wasn't exactly groundbreaking stuff. But at least it was closer to the mark than Grantley Bernard's prediction of 3-1 to the Tigers in the Herald Sun.

As it turned out, the series did go to game five. The South Dragons conquered the Melbourne Tigers with a 3-2 series win.

It was as if the whole thing had been scripted beforehand. Only you can't help but think that some of what happened couldn't be scripted.

Surely, no one would've scripted the MVP would be Donta Smith, of all people.

Surely, no one would've scripted the standout in game five would be Tremell Darden, of all people.

To script such things, one must first forego the notion that imports on Brian Goorjian-coached teams merely fill in the gaps not occupied by local talent. (It's not a steadfast notion, but generally speaking it works.)

You'd be mad to script such things looking at both players' form early on in their Australian stints.

Donta Smith arrived mid-season (his first game was on Boxing Day) and took his time to work into the system.

Tremmell Darden had his fair share of struggles early on. It wasn't until about half way through the season that complaints about his using up of an import slot died down.

But perhaps the most remarkable thing about the performances of these two imports in the grand final series came before they'd even arrived in Australia.

Smith only arrived to replace the injured Cortez Groves. As Joe Ingles said after game five, if Groves was still fit, Smith wouldn't have been called on.

Darden only got his spot after – anyone for irony? – Ebi Ere doggedly ditched the Dragons for – here it is... – the Melbourne Tigers. He almost certainly wouldn't have been here if Ere hadn't gone walkabout.

So, when you sit back and think about it, these two guys were actually second-choice options for Goorjian and the Dragons.

Had a rather exceptional set of circumstances not occurred, neither of them would have found themselves on the Dragons roster.

We would have never got to compare the pair's dunking abilities.

We would have never seen Smith's series-long effort.

We would have never seen Darden's 21-point third quarter in game five.

And maybe – just maybe – we would have never seen a Dragons championship.

But thankfully, things didn't go that way. Instead we got a grand final that will be remembered for years to come.

Whilst the league now faces an uncertain future, the Dragons-Tigers rivalry, on the back of that series, is guaranteed to continue.

Photo courtesy of Joseph on Flickr. (More photos of the game at his website, here.)

Dragons and Tigers closer than they appeared

You can also read this here.

Before a single game had been played in the NBL season, South Dragons coach Brian Goorjian made some peculiar remarks on the prospects of the cross-town rival Melbourne Tigers.

Speaking in reaction to the hype surrounding the club’s “stacked” roster, Goorjian said: “I don’t see any one in the league near that and I think they are going to have to fall on their own sword or stumble somewhere along the line (not to win it this season).”

“Just talent-wise, in my time in the league, I haven’t seen separation from one team to the rest of the competition like that.”

The irony here?

Now, six months after Goorjian said that the Tigers would have to “fall on their own sword,” his Dragons face the task of beating them in a best-of-five grand final series.

And if the Dragons are to win this series, it won’t be due to a mere Tigers “stumble”.

On Friday night, the series was levelled to one game apiece. Throughout game two, save for a brief lapse in concentration deep in the fourth quarter, the Tigers were looking as dangerous as they have all season.

Even then, they did it with American import Ebi Ere looking unusually-tame.

This came on the back of the team’s barnstorming form since recruiting Luke Kendall and Dave Thomas to come off the bench early in the New Year. Going into the grand final, they had won 12 games from their last 14.

It took some time, but they’re finally living up to some of that pre-season hype, when it was said nobody could defeat them in a five-game series.

But if anyone can put up a challenge, it’s Goorjian and his Dragons. They’re one of the few sides to have the Tigers’ number this year.

In the regular season, the Dragons claimed three Melbourne derbies and lost only one. They also finished atop the NBL ladder in a season it was considered fait accompli that the Tigers would.

Crucially, the men in black also hold home court advantage in games three and five. Although it may not seem like much in a local derby, the two games so far have seen boisterous support given to the home side.

Speaking of the advantage, Goorjian said: “We’ve worked all year for it and we want to maintain it and if we maintain it through the series we win the championship.”

Which is a lot more convincing than the “if the Tigers screw up, we win the championship” line, hey?

The reality is, in spite of talk about stacked rosters and unbeatable teams, this series could fall either way.

Each side goes into the final two or three games of the series – quite likely the final two or three games of the NBL entirely – with their destiny in their own hands.

Tiger fans know that so far in this series, we’re yet to see the best of Ebi Ere. Dragon fans would tell you to expect more out of young sensation Joe Ingles, who was benched at a crucial stage late in game two.

We will find out who can lift their game up a notch tomorrow night, in game three at Hisense Arena.

For the loser, it will take two consecutive wins to claim the championship.

For the winner, they will be just one step away from lifting the trophy.