Predictions: What will happen in the AFL this year?

Late last year, I took the time out to write a few thoughts on who might be taking home silverware in 2009. It was all fun and games until I realized both the men's and women's titles at the Australian Open were won by the two people predicted to win it, Rafael Nadal and Serena Williams.

From there, the half-arsed tip that no matter who won the A-League grand final, Adelaide United would lose, turned out to be on the money. Then, the South Dragons won the NBL championship.

It seems all too likely that from here, my prediction abilities will head south. So whilst I'm on a roll I thought I'd churn out another little piece for the AFL season before it's too late.

Here's five things you can expect to see in 2009:

#1. Geelong will be at their best (and win the premiership)

It wasn't that long ago they got themselves a premiership, Brownlow, Rising Star, Norm Smith, minor premiership, VFL premiership and too many All-Australians to count all in the space of one year.

Then last season, they came out with a 21-win regular season. They were considered near-unstoppable. (Emphasis on the near.)

So it's pretty unfathomable to suggest that now we're about to see their best, right?

Wrong.

In 2009, there's more than enough players out to redeem themselves after the shock grand final loss last year. The motivation will drive them to a point we most likely will never see them at again.

Hawthorn, on the other hand, will have a season similar to last year's, but we won't see their best just yet.

#2. Wooden spooners will be Melbourne, not Freo

The Melbourne Football Club have made the noble sacrifice of not recruiting young players who are going to immediately walk up to their best 22.

Their number one pick at last year's draft went to Jack Watts, a kid who still has high school to complete and won't likely get any game time in the first half of the season.

Of course there's nothing wrong with holding out on young guys, it's just that it makes the short-term picture look especially bleak.

Fremantle, on the other hand, fresh off the back of introducing future stars like Rhys Palmer and Garrick Ibbotson last year, are bringing in a host of young guns.

Expect the injection of Nick Suban, Stephen Hill, Hayden Ballantyne and even the rookie-elevated Greg Broughton to keep them off the bottom this year.

#3. Port Adelaide, Richmond and Carlton will move into the eight

It's looking like an exciting year for Port. Forward pair Robbie Gray and Justin Westhoff will lift their games up a significant notch, as will fellow third-year player Travis Boak in the midfield.

The experience they have on top of that youth should not be overlooked. They may just knock on the door of the top four if things fall their way.

Ben Cousins or no Ben Cousins, Richmond were destined to improve in 2009. It's actually one of the main reasons why Ben Cousins is such a great fit at the Tigers.

Something drastic would have to happen for them not to play September footy this year.

Ditto for Carlton. They've built a quality list that's ready to step up.

#4. St Kilda's hopes of a premiership will be dashed again

The Saints will not make the four. They were – incredibly – lucky to make it last year. One of the craziest round 22 shake-ups in recent history gave them that spot, and fans should not read a heck of a lot into it.

In 2009, their luck will finally run out, if for no reason other than they had their chance and they blew it.

The sacking of Grant Thomas could not have come at a more inconvenient time.

Of course they've now had ample time to adapt to Ross Lyon. But their "premiership window", it must be said, disappeared some time ago.

#5. The ladder will look a little something like this...

Top 8: Geelong, Hawthorn, Collingwood, Western Bulldogs, Port Adelaide, Carlton, Richmond, St Kilda.

Bottom 8: Adelaide, North Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane Lions, Essendon, West Coast, Fremantle, Melbourne.

Photo credit, in order of appearance, to Liam, Michael Spencer, Ryan Schembri, Berk McGowan and Will.