The Open is here, even if Aussies are not

It’s time to slap on the sunscreen, jump on V/Line and head to Melbourne Park, because my favourite time of the year has arrived. The Australian Open for 2009 begins next week and there is no shortage of talking points.

It seems that this year, those points are beginning and ending not with which Aussies fair a chance – unfortunate as that may be – but with one Andy Murray.

The Scot is yet to win a grand slam title, but many expect that that he will break that duck right here in Melbourne in just a couple of week’s time. There’s some pretty substantial evidence to back up this assumption, too.

Just look at his track record so far in ’09: he’s beaten Roger Federer – twice – as well as Rafael Nadal and Andy Roddick. All in the space of two tournaments, no less.

Then go back to ’08 and the promise he showed: winning the Masters tournaments in Cincinnati and Madrid, producing an inspired run at Wimbledon and making the U.S. Open final a month later. He was the fourth-highest earner on the men’s tour.

The wave of momentum he’s riding right now can’t be a fluke. It has been building since the middle of last year and from what we’ve seen so far this year, it hasn’t slowed down.

Its little wonder pundits are so eager to slap the “favourite” tag on him for Melbourne.

But one mustn’t get too carried away, there are actually factors working against Murray, too. Like how his form in Melbourne hasn’t left much to be desired.

Last year, he dropped out in the first round. In 2006, it was the same. Only his fourth round exit in ’07 serves to bolster his case.

Rafael Nadal, meanwhile, has not disgraced himself in lead-up events – bowing out to Murray and “my man” Gael Monfils at the business end of both tournaments. Yet many expected more from the world number one.

Nadal has not gotten past the semi finals in either of the hard court slams – the Australian and U.S. Opens – but famously claimed Wimbledon over Roger Federer on grass last year. This suggests he’s been underachieving on the supposedly “neutral” hard courts.

One thing’s for sure: he’s no longer playing the role of number two. He’s ranked number one. He’ll be seeded number one. But can he play like a number one?

His predecessor in that regard, Roger Federer, has an interesting 2009 ahead of him. This year will in all likeliness determine just where his place in history lies.

Yes, last year he still managed to win the U.S. Open, but he also lost at Wimbledon, on his preferred surface of grass. And since his victory in New York, he hasn’t exactly set the world on fire.

The Swiss last won a title in October.

It’s too early to write off a player of Federer’s quality, particularly at an event he’s enjoyed so much success at. However you get the feeling it will take something truly special for him to prove the critics wrong this time.

Another player who has enjoyed success in Melbourne, last year’s champ Novak Djokovic, is putting his hand up once again and rounds out what is looking like “the big four”.

That said, even he is looking shaky on the form front. He lost out in the first round of the Brisbane International the other week.

But don’t worry, it was the racquet’s fault, honest…

Behind the pack there is always one man who can pull the proverbial rabbit out of the hat in Melbourne. Think Marcos Baghdatis. Think Fernando Gonzalez. Think Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Three straight years, three straight finalists nobody expected to be finalists.

And with the fact that none of the big four are unbeatable in hand, there is a good chance that this year will be no different.

I could talk all day – and kinda already have – about the potential of unheralded Frenchman Gael Monfils. He’s shown how to light up Melbourne Park before, and after missing out on last year’s tournament to injury, he’ll be ready to pick up where he left off.

Another name bandied around with “upset potential” written all over him is Gilles Simon, also from France. Despite being ranked number seven in the world, he’s virtually unheard of in Australian circles – a dangerous mix in Melbourne, it seems.

No matter who ends up lifting the trophy, it’s sure to be another cracking Open.

Let the two weeks of madness begin.