GF will be epic, but is Hawthorn really a chance?

Before I go on my now-annual tirade of why Geelong is destined for a premiership and why their opponents aren’t capable of matching them, I have two disclaimers:

1. I am an avid Cats fan.

2. In spite of disclaimer #1, last year I tipped a 114-point victory to the Cats.

For the record, they won by 119. But as far as I can recall, none of the so-called “experts” in the media were outlandish enough to suggest the greatest grand final victory of all time.

I was. And I was right. So unlike most issues written about on this blog, I have some credibility on the subject of grand final tipping.

And with my small dose of head-wobbling out the way, let’s take a look at Saturday’s game.

The Cats and Hawks were undoubtedly the best two teams of the year, both are clearly deserving of their places. Geelong has gone oh-so-close to perfection, only held back by the solitary aberration against Collingwood.

Hawthorn have risen to the challenge and continued to grow into the force we’d all anticipated they would become. Buddy Franklin has had a breakthrough year, Stuart Dew has become the off-season recruit of the year and the team’s overall development has exceeded expectations.

Unfortunately, having the best two teams in the comp facing off on grand final day doesn’t always translate into a good contest. Last year’s one-sided affair is testament to that.

So don’t let Hawthorn’s polished performance against St Kilda fool you, don’t let it paint the picture that they are “ready.” Too many people last year succumbed to that symptom in talking up Port Adelaide’s chances. Preliminary final form does not translate into grand final glory.

Of course, if the Hawks were the real deal, a preliminary final win would only serve to enhance their flag credentials. But I am a sceptic.

The Hawks’ severe lack of high-pressure September experience must surely work against them. Prior to this year, this crop of Hawks had just two finals games under their belt. This year, the only finals games they’ve played in have been blow-outs.

Perhaps they needed to play the Western Bulldogs last night, who would've given them a run for their money, and not St Kilda, who let them run riot.

Another note you can take from this time last year is the fact you can bet the house on Geelong bringing their A-game come that last Saturday in September.

This is the day their season builds toward, and with the experience of ’07 (an experience only one Hawthorn player has) you can be rest assured the Cats will be at their best.

The Hawks are a different proposition; they are a young side who’ve been built to win a premiership. And it seems fait accompli that they will.

But as it stands, stack their list next to Geelong’s and the balance will be tipped in the Cats’ favour, no matter which way you look at it.

The parallels between the Hawks and Port Adelaide are strong and hard to ignore. Perhaps the only difference is that this is Hawthorn, the side built to win a premiership. They are not Port Adelaide, the oddly-comprised balance of youth and experience that happened to be in the right place at the right time.

It’d be hard to see this one going over 100 points.

Another concept bandied around in the wake of last night’s victory has been what I call the “reverse ’89.” Basically, it sees the roles of the 1989 grand final (where Gary Ablett Snr and his Cats stood up to the elite Hawks, only to lose by a goal) swapped.

When you’ve got someone like Buddy Franklin to fill the role of Ablett, you can’t help but get caught up in the romance of the idea.

The parallel, much like the one with Port Adelaide, seems to check out. The Hawks are on the rise, much like the Cats of ’89, and the Cats are the ones to beat, much like the standout Hawks of ’89.

But romance aside, it is hard to see Hawthorn bridging the gap. At least not to the extent that the Gary Ablett and his army did.

So which will it be – an ’07-esque blow-out or a reverse ’89?

Somewhere in between the two sounds about right. Cats by 50.

Best Off Ground will be blogging daily during grand final week. Except maybe Saturday, he's expected to be somewhere over the moon on Saturday.